Vietnam Update – November 2014

ECONOMIC UPDATE

Economic indicators in October signalled a continued recovery on the expansion of the manufacturing sector and better external demand.

HSBC’s Purchasing Manager Index posted 51.0 in October, slightly down from 51.7 last month but still pointing out a positive outlook for the production sector on higher export orders and increased employment. Meanwhile, the Industrial Production Index also posted an improvement of 6.9% YoY, much higher than 5.6% YoY growth of the same period last year, led by encouraged gains of the manufacturing and processing industry in general and the manufacturing of electronic and computer products in particular.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.11% MoM or 3.23% YoY in October as higher educational costs on back-to-school season were offset by substantial cuts of 2.19% in gasoline prices1. Given the current low level of headline inflation, 2014 inflation is forecast to be below 4% despite of the seasonal peak of consumption in the last two months of the year.

Vietnam’s trade surplus contracted to USD 1.87 billion due to October’s deficit of USD 400 million1….

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Duxton’s Agri Bits and Pieces Vol. 211

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

With food consumption in India set to rise by 136 per cent between 2009 and 2050, Australia today underlined the great opportunities for its agriculture sector in the world’s second most populous nation. Australian Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce made these comments following the recent visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

I was privileged to meet with Prime Minister Modi on his recent Australian visit and we both agree that the true potential of the relationship between our two countries has not been realised.

Driven by strong income growth, particularly in urban centres, combined with India’s continued population growth, youthful demographic and increasing urbanisation, consumption of agrifood products is projected to more than double between 2009 and 2050.

Assuming current agricultural policies are maintained, the value of imports to India of vegetables is projected to rise to $47 billion by 2050, fruit to $58 billion, dairy products to $13 billion and wheat to $15 billion. That reflects a rise in fruit consumption of 246 per cent, while vegetable consumption is projected to rise by 183 per cent and dairy products by 137 per…

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